Are we right to be afraid of COVID-19?
Several factors make this virus particularly worrying. Being a new virus, there is no acquired immunity. As many as 35 candidate vaccines are currently in the study phase, but experts agree that no widely usable vaccine will be available for at least 12 to 18 months. The case-fatality rate, which by definition is calculated only on the basis of identified patients and is therefore currently difficult to estimate accurately, appears to be around 1 per cent.
It is known that at least some of those affected can transmit the disease before developing symptoms—or even in the absence of any symptoms. In addition, a very high proportion—around 80 per cent—of people develop very mild forms of the disease, which makes it difficult to identify and isolate cases quickly. Confirmation of the diagnosis requires laboratory and/or medical imaging capabilities that are only available in referral facilities. It is therefore not surprising that it has proven impossible to contain the spread of the virus, which is now present in more than 100 countries around the world.
This epidemic is therefore very different from those involving diseases such as measles, cholera or Ebola, in which Médecins Sans Frontières has developed its expertise over the last few decades.
Furthermore, it is estimated today that approximately 15-20 per cent of patients with COVID-19 require hospitalisation and six per cent require intensive care for a duration of between three and six weeks. This can, of course, quickly saturate the healthcare system. This was the case in China at the beginning of the epidemic, and is currently the case in Italy. There are currently more than 1,100 patients in intensive care units in Italy and the hospital system in the north of the country, although well developed, has been overwhelmed by the rapid increase in the number of patients.
As is often the case during this type of epidemic, medical staff members themselves are particularly exposed to infection. Between mid-January and mid-February in China more than 2,000 healthcare workers were infected with this coronavirus (3.7 per cent of all patients).
This epidemic is likely to lead to the disruption of basic medical services and emergency facilities, the de-prioritisation of treatment for other life-threatening diseases and conditions and for other chronic infectious diseases everywhere. But this is especially the case in some developing countries, where the health system is already fragile.